Benjamin Cowen Drops the Bear Market Truth Bomb: A 70% Plunge Is Just 'Bitcoin Being Bitcoin'

Benjamin Cowen, the analyst crypto Twitter actually takes seriously (we know, shocking), has crunched the numbers on Bitcoin's potential plunge, and folks, the results are about as cozy as a hardware wallet submerged in ocean water. The man doesn't do hopium, and his latest thread proves it.

Cowen splits the crypto universe into two camps: the Realistic View (where we actually think) and the Doomer View (where people who sold at break-even go to die). His analysis shows Bitcoin peaked at $126,000 in late 2025 and has officially entered what he expects to be roughly a year-long bear market. So if you've been wondering why your portfolio looks like a sad face emoji, now you know.

Here's where it gets spicy. A 70% decline from the peak (give or take 5%, because precision matters in this clown car market) is, according to Cowen, entirely textbook for Bitcoin. This isn't the end times—it's just Bitcoin being Bitcoin, doing its thing like clockwork every four years. The numbers put a 65% drop at roughly $42,000, while a meatier 75% correction sends the price tumbling to the $30,000-$31,000 neighborhood. Your apartment might be worth more than your Bitcoin holdings soon. Hooray.

So what's the actual apocalypse scenario? Not just Bitcoin shedding 70%, but a full-blown macroeconomic meltdown. Cowen points to warning signs—the US economy wobbling toward recession, labor markets getting soft, hiring slowing down—and suggests that if the S&P 500 catches a cold, Bitcoin might catch pneumonia and fall even harder below that "comfortable" 70% drop. Fun times ahead for anyone holding spot.

On the technical side, three red flags suggest Bitcoin hasn't hit bottom yet:

• The old profit and loss metrics haven't crossed at a major bottom like they have in previous cycles, which means more suffering before the cycle flips
• Historically, Bitcoin has traded below both the Realized Price (~$54,000) and Equilibrium Price (~$39,000) at cycle lows—so we're basically playing limbo with historical precedent
• The MVRV Z-Score hasn't dipped below zero yet, which sounds like a math problem but really just means more pain could be coming to a portfolio near you

*This is not financial advice. Because honestly, nobody wants that responsibility right now.