According to Cathie Wood, founder and CEO of Ark Invest, Bitcoin’s mathematically hard-coded supply cap makes it a far superior scarce asset to gold, especially as institutional demand continues to swell. In her "2026 Outlook" report, Wood dissects the recent performance divergence between the two assets. While gold enjoyed a massive 65% surge in 2025, Bitcoin actually dipped 6%. Wood argues that gold's staggering 166% rally since October 2022 isn't driven by inflation panic, but rather by "global wealth creation" overwhelming the metal's paltry ~1.8% annual supply growth. She writes that "the incremental demand for gold could be outstripping its supply growth." Bitcoin, however, operates on a completely different plane. "Gold miners, by boosting production of gold, can do something not possible with Bitcoin," Wood notes. "Bitcoin is mathematically metered to increase ~0.82% per year for the next two years, at which point its growth will decelerate to ~0.41% per year." This rigid, inelastic supply schedule means that any spike in demand—like the relentless inflows into spot ETFs—would hit Bitcoin's price with far more force. The report suggests that "if Bitcoin demand continues to increase, the bellwether crypto could benefit more than gold due to its mathematical nature." Bitwise CIO Matthew Hougan recently echoed this scarcity thesis, arguing that sustained institutional demand outpacing supply could trigger a "parabolic blowoff" for Bitcoin. Bitcoin's exchange-traded funds appear to be following the exact structural playbook that preceded gold's historic 2025 surge, a parallel that suggests a massive move awaits the top cryptocurrency. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matthew Hougan highlighted this analogy on a podcast with influencer Michael 'Threadguy' Jerome. bitcoin is over 97k it's time to lock back in. come get caught up. INTERVIEWING @Matt_Hougan (445pm est). https://t.co/v32wqr4bfX — threadguy (@notthreadguy)... "Bitcoin's performance in 2025 looks weak in isolation, but context matters," Georgii Verbitskii, Founder of TYMIO, told Decrypt. "In 2024, Bitcoin rose sharply... a period of consolidation the following year is not only normal but justified." Verbitskii agreed with Wood's core structural argument, noting that "when capital rotates into hard assets during a global currency revaluation, Bitcoin belongs in that same category as gold." However, he highlighted a critical divergence: gold miners can ramp up production when prices rise, but Bitcoin's supply is fixed. "That asymmetry means that when demand returns, Bitcoin's price reaction is structurally more explosive," Verbitskii said. Wood's analysis also places gold's current rally in a sobering historical context. The ratio of gold's market capitalization to the M2 money supply has reached a level last seen in the early 1930s and 1980s—periods she describes as "extreme." Historically, sustained declines from such peaks have coincided with strong equity market returns. For allocators, Wood highlights a final, critical advantage: diversification. The correlation between Bitcoin and gold is lower than that between the S&P 500 and bonds, she noted, concluding that Bitcoin "should be a good source of diversification for asset allocators looking for higher returns per unit of risk during the years ahead." "Looking into 2026, I don't see this as a buy-or-sell question, but rather a hold question," Verbitskii said. "Gold offers stability, Bitcoin offers asymmetric upside. Historically, Bitcoin has grown faster than gold, and I expect that pattern to continue."
