Bitcoin is inching upward toward a formidable resistance zone while the supply on exchanges continues to evaporate. On paper, this screams bullish setup, but technically, the price is knocking on a door where profit-takers usually start throwing a party. So, the script flips either way: BTC smashes through this ceiling and holds it, or it takes a breather for a corrective dip back to the middle of the range.
Zooming into the daily chart, BTC has crept back into the $95K resistance band, which conveniently aligns with the 100-day moving average. This is the same wall that gave the asset a rejection the last time it came knocking, so for now, it remains a key supply zone within the broader downtrend from the highs. The daily RSI is juiced but not at panic-buying extremes anymore, signaling solid short-term momentum while still sitting inside a larger corrective structure. As long as BTC stays below the 100-day moving average and that $95K blockade, this move is just a counter-trend rally, not a confirmed new uptrend. But if the level finally cracks to the upside, we could see a sprint toward the $106K zone and the nearby 200-day moving average, potentially kickstarting a new, more prolonged bull run.
On the 4-hour chart, the price punched out of an ascending pattern and is now consolidating right at the top of the structure and at the higher-timeframe resistance. Momentum is clearly losing steam: candles are shrinking, and the RSI has started to roll over from overbought after a bearish divergence, hinting at local distribution near the highs. If buyers can't defend the breakout area around $93K–$94K, a pullback toward the lower trendline of the pattern and the $90K region looks probable. Conversely, if BTC can hold above $93K–$94K and build a base there, another push toward the $98K–$100K psychological level becomes realistic. Yet, buyers need quick follow-through, or this breakout risks turning into a classic fakeout.
Exchange reserve data continues to trend lower while the price trades near the top of the local range. That means fewer BTC are sitting on exchanges and more are in cold storage or strong hands, which is typically a constructive, supply-tight backdrop. This doesn't prevent short-term corrections when the price is pressing into technical resistance, but it does argue that deeper dips into the $80K–$90K range are more likely to be bought than to trigger a full distribution top. Unless a sharp spike of BTC flowing back to exchanges occurs, the on-chain picture still leans medium-term bullish even if the price experiences some near-term downside to reset momentum.
