Bitcoin has finally remembered what price action looks like, pushing toward $98,000 and holding above $96,000. Crypto traders are dusting off their bullish hats, but the market's underlying structure might be telling a different story.
The hidden force holding Bitcoin back isn't hype, ETFs, or Twitter sentiment—it's real interest rates. Michael Nadeau points out that Bitcoin often struggles when real rates climb, a pattern clearly visible in 2022's brutal rate-hike era. Since mid-October, real rates have been creeping higher again, and Bitcoin's relationship with them has turned negative. When safer investments pay more, crypto's risk premium starts looking less attractive.
While many traders cling to the four-year cycle like a security blanket, Nadeau believes in cycles but warns they're not a copy-paste affair. Instead of calendar watching, he tracks money flows through three classic stages: early bull phase, wealth creation, and wealth distribution. Looking at this cycle, he sees signs that all three stages may already be in the rearview mirror.
Earlier in the cycle, crypto saw explosive growth—DeFi lending boomed, new companies raised huge sums, and marketing budgets were everywhere. Now, much of that energy has cooled. To Nadeau, this looks less like a new beginning and more like a market that's already had its big run and is now sorting out who stays and who exits.
From a chart perspective, Nadeau is laser-focused on the 50-week moving average. Bitcoin lost this level in October and subsequently fell around 35%. Since then, on-chain data shows heavy coin movement—a classic sign of late-cycle rotation. He expected a bounce back toward the $101,000-$102,000 zone, and the recent move into the high $90,000s fits that script. But here's the catch: unless Bitcoin can reclaim and hold above that level for several weeks, the rally lacks real support.
"I'm not convinced this is a durable move," Nadeau said, stressing that short-term strength alone isn't enough. ETFs are seeing fresh inflows and long-term holders appear less eager to sell, but these are supportive factors, not decisive ones. Without a clear technical breakout, ETF demand alone may not be enough to push Bitcoin into a new long-term uptrend.
Over the next few weeks, Bitcoin needs to prove it can turn resistance into support. If it cannot, this burst of strength could end up being just another pause, not the start of the next major run.
