Bitcoin's recent 21% price surge since November 21 might feel like a victory lap, but onchain analysts are hitting the brakes. According to CryptoQuant's latest Weekly Report, the current rally bears a striking resemblance to the 2022 bear market bounce, where a 47% rebound was ultimately rejected at the 365-day moving average.
The key threshold to watch is $101,000, where the 365-day moving average currently sits. Bitcoin's price fell 19% after crossing below this average in late 2025, then rallied 19% to $97,900—approaching the same resistance level that capped the 2022 rally. That 2022 episode saw a 27% drop followed by a 47% recovery, only to be rejected at the moving average, ultimately leading to prolonged bearish conditions.
CryptoQuant's analysis suggests the market psychology is echoing 2022, when many traders prematurely declared the bear market over and predicted a super-cycle. "Fundamental and technical indicators still point out that we remain in a bear market," the report states, warning that a failure to reclaim the yearly moving average could extend the downturn into 2026.
Adding to the cautionary signals, exchange inflows have spiked to a 7-day average of 39,000 BTC—the highest since November 25, 2025. Elevated inflows to exchanges typically indicate mounting selling pressure, as holders move coins to trading platforms in preparation for liquidation.
The comparison chart shows 2026's price trajectory diverging from the 2018 bear market but closely tracking 2022's path. With the $101,000 level already identified as a major resistance zone, the coming days will determine whether this rebound follows the 2022 script or manages to break the pattern. For now, the data suggests bulls aren't out of the woods yet.
