Toncoin (TON) is currently surfing a wave of volatility, sitting at $1.72 after a 3.3% dip in the last 24 hours. This recent slump comes despite a solid 14.71% gain over the past month, highlighting TON's high-beta nature in a choppy market. It's underperforming the broader crypto space, which is down 1.43% in the same period, proving that sometimes the best crypto asset is the one not currently getting pummeled.
Meanwhile, Russia is pulling the plug on WhatsApp, planning a full ban after months of restricting its calls. Local authorities cite non-compliance with data laws and a lack of cooperation from Meta, essentially accusing the app of playing fast and loose with user data. This move is expected to send millions of users scrambling for alternatives, with Telegram—still operational—set to capture a massive influx. The government is also pushing its state-backed messenger, Max, as a mandatory install on new devices, part of a broader digital sovereignty push that sounds less like a feature and more like a pre-installed bloatware nightmare.
Telegram's user base in Russia has already been surging, and this migration could turbocharge engagement with crypto services baked into the platform, including The Open Network (TON). Originally developed by Telegram co-founder Nikolai Durov, TON adoption could see a demand boost from the increased social and economic activity on the app. It’s the kind of real-world utility narrative that crypto Twitter loves, even if the underlying driver is a government crackdown on a messaging app.
On the technical front, TON has faced bearish pressure, breaking below the critical $1.75 support level amid high-volume liquidations. Trading volume has spiked to $142.9 million, confirming strong sell-side momentum as traders rush for the exits. The RSI sits at 48, suggesting the asset is nearing oversold territory and leaving room for a short-term bounce. However, the MACD's negative histogram points to lingering bearish dominance, meaning the charts are currently screaming "pain" rather than "pump."
Altcoins like TON are particularly sensitive to broader market headwinds, with recent Bitcoin ETF outflows of $681 million amplifying selling in risk-off conditions. TON's beta of ~1.5 against BTC means its price swings are more pronounced than those of larger cryptos, acting like a leveraged bet on Bitcoin's mood swings. Without fresh catalysts like partnerships or product launches, TON lacks fundamental support during downturns, leaving it drifting on the whims of macro sentiment.
Key levels to watch: $1.70 is immediate support, and holding above it is crucial for a potential rebound. If TON stays above $1.70, analysts eye $1.97 as the first resistance target, a level that feels miles away right now. Breaking that could pave the way to $2.16 and then $2.34, turning the chart from a bloodbath into a beauty. But failure to hold $1.70 might send it sliding toward $1.42, a destination no bagholder wants to visit.
