US President Donald Trump announced that the "leaker on Venezuela" has been found and is currently in jail, a statement that has reignited scrutiny over suspiciously well-timed bets on prediction markets. While Trump didn't name specific platforms, blockchain analysts at Lookonchain quickly connected the dots to a cluster of Polymarket accounts.
The timing was impeccable. Just hours before news of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's arrest became public, three wallets placed concentrated bets on his ouster. These accounts have since shown unusual activity—or rather, inactivity. Lookonchain reported that two of the three wallets that profited from the Venezuela bets have been dormant for 11 days, coinciding with Trump's announcement.
One particularly profitable wallet, identified as 0xa72DB1, turned a $5,800 stake into $75,000 by betting Maduro would be out of office by January 31, 2026. Another, 0x31a56e, invested about $34,000 and walked away with over $400,000 before disappearing around January 8.
The third wallet, SBet365, remains active and appears to have moved on to new geopolitical predictions. Two days ago, it placed a bet that Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would be ousted by month's end. This same wallet had previously earned around $145,000 from Venezuela-related wagers.
The controversy has drawn attention to the intersection of prediction markets and potential insider information. Legal experts note that leaking classified government information carries severe penalties under U.S. law, with sentences potentially ranging from years to decades in prison. Trump himself suggested there might be more leakers, stating officials would "let you know about that" if others are identified.
Meanwhile, Polymarket has faced separate criticism over its handling of Venezuela-related contracts. On January 7, the platform refused to settle over $10 million in wagers about whether the U.S. would invade Venezuela, despite Maduro's capture during a U.S. operation. Polymarket argued the raid didn't meet its contractual definition of "invasion," which requires military action intended to establish territorial control.
The timing of these trades has intensified calls for prediction market regulation. Representative Ritchie Torres announced plans to introduce the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026, which would prevent federal officials from trading prediction market contracts based on government actions when they possess material nonpublic information.
