Donald Trump’s master plan to unseat Jerome Powell has spectacularly imploded, leaving the Fed Chair chilling in the driver's seat. Following a US Department of Justice (DOJ) investigation into the central bank boss, the vibes on Polymarket have shifted faster than a rug pull. The odds of Powell getting the boot before May 30 crashed from 74% to 45%, while the probability of him surviving through the end of the year dropped from 85% to 62%. The degens are clearly pivoting.
The prediction markets for Powell’s replacement are heating up faster than a congested Ethereum block. Kevin Warsh, a self-described monetary 'hawk,' has overtaken Trump-ally Kevin Hassett in the betting pools. It seems the smart money is looking for a hawk rather than a yes-man right now.
Analyst Dan Clifton suggests this reversal stems from Trump crossing a 'red line' that was thinner than a meme coin's liquidity. An informal truce, established last summer, saw Powell keep his mouth shut in exchange for Trump easing his criticism of the Fed’s multi-billion dollar headquarters renovation. With the DOJ probe effectively ending that détente, Powell now appears more likely to remain on the board, rendering further attacks as useless as a fork on a Bitcoin mainnet.
