Bitcoin’s early adopters—the OGs who bought in under $100 and held for over five years—are finally easing up on the selling. After years of cashing out during BTC’s explosive runs, their selling pressure has dropped sharply. From a 90-day average of 3,000 BTC in 2024, it’s now down to 1,000 BTC as of 2026—a 73% decline in two years. This reduction is helping to boost the asset’s recovery odds.
Meanwhile, 2026 is shaping up to be a positive year for Bitcoin. The heavy selling from long-term holders (those holding BTC for more than 5 months), ETF outflows, and excessive leverage has largely been reset, laying the structural foundation for a solid recovery. Institutional demand is now nearly five times the new supply from miners. As of mid-January 2026, institutions have absorbed 30,000 BTC, dwarfing the freshly minted 5,700 BTC. This mirrors the trend seen when ETFs debuted in 2024 and 2025.
JPMorgan analysts predict crypto inflows will surge in 2026, following a record $130 billion in 2025. They note that the rebound in institutional flows will likely be facilitated by additional crypto regulations, such as the U.S. Clarity Act, which could trigger further institutional adoption and fresh activity.
As for whether BTC’s recovery will extend itself, the True MVRV oscillator—which identifies key market cycles and investor sentiment shifts—bottomed near 1.0 and has recovered to 1.1. Historically, past recoveries at this level have peaked when the oscillator surged toward 1.5 (mid-range) or 2.0. So, if the current recovery continues, it could cool off if MVRV climbs to those higher levels. At press time, BTC was trading at $95.5k, up 18% from Q4 2025’s low of $80.6k.
